Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Longchamp Sunday 6th October 2024

It being the first Sunday in October this weekend that can only mean one thing, it is the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp. It’s a day I always look forward to and really should get myself out there one day; crazy that I have never made the trip. We have some of the best racehorses in the world right now on show at Longchamp and it’s a cracking afternoon of horseracing with six Group One’s for Thoroughbreds and I am involved in them all. There is every chance of some rain on Paris this morning and as I write the going is officially soft.

For those of us here in the UK Sky Sports Racing have full coverage of the card whilst ITV Racing will be on air from 12.45pm–3.45pm on Sunday showing four of the Thoroughbred races and the pure-bred Arabians World Cup race.

Best bets for the horseracing at Longchamp

12.55 Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac - Criterium des Pouliches - Mile (2yo Fillies)

The first race on the card see’s some nice young fillies going to post. The in-form Aidan O’Brien has sent two for this in the shape of Bedtime Story and Exactly.; first and second in the 7f G.2 Debutante Stakes in August. Bedtime Story is clearly the stable number one but blotted her copybook last time when defeated for the first time in five starts in the 7f G.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes. Being beaten by Lake Victoria doesn’t look that bad after she won the G.1 Cheveley Park Stakes last weekend (Simmering second and Exactly third) and Bedtime Story was reported lame after the race so has an excuse. Aga Khan home-bred Zarigana has been odds-on since they chalked-up for this, arriving unbeaten as she does in two starts. She is certainly bred to be good, by Siyouni out of Zarkamiya (Frankel) and her grand-dam the great Zarkava, and she looked it when winning the G.3 Prix D'aumale Stakes over track and trip last time as she liked. I don’t like tipping odds-on shots but I will be shocked if she gets beat. I am on at 4-6 and think we might see something special from this filly.

1.30 Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere - 7f (2yo Colts & Fillies)

This looks a much more competitive affair than the opener with raiders from Ireland and the UK heading the market. I said at the end of August when tipping Field Of Gold to win the G.3 7f Solario Stakes at Sandown that the grey was fancied to take that before moving up in class in the autumn. Well here he is with a chance even though the going is an unknown. The yard had a couple of winners yesterday ending quite the dry spell and you’d expect there is more to come from him. Henri Matisse suffered defeat for the first time when second in the 7f G.1 Goffs Vincent O'Brien National Stakes last time out; throwing away his chance by running around a bit late on; Ryan Moore reported afterwards that the colt ran around and hung both ways. He won the G.2 Futurity Stakes and Railway Stakes before that, playing about a bit in both of those, so clearly has his own ideas as well as some talent. If Moore can keep him straight he’ll be there or thereabouts you'd expect but will he run straight and true? Blinkers go on. Rashabar has been on my radar since debut, still kicking myself for not backing him each-eay in the Coventry Stakes, and is another that merits consideration. Second in the 6f G.1 Prix Morny last time he tackles seven-furlongs for the first time. G.3 Prix La Rochette winner Houquetot has a chance but I really quite like another for the home team. Winner of the G.3 mile Prix des Chenes on soft here in September the Marco Baratti trained Misunderstood arrives with a couple of 1’s next to his name having won over 7½f at Deauville on debut back in July. His four-and-a-half length victory in the Prix des Chenes was very eye-catching, leading every yard pretty much, and easing down late on. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Alexis Pouchin try similar front-running tactics here and making this a bit of a test. Proven on the going with track experience and the fact he gets further already I think he might win this without seeing another horse. I am on at 6-1.

2.05 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines - 5f (2yo+)

There is often a bad luck story in this as it can get a bit messy up the sprint course. We have a couple of two-year-olds trying to take advantage of the massive weight-for-age allowance again this year in the shape of Englemere and La Bellota; as a filly Englemere has only 8-4 to carry so gets 17lb off the older fillies and 21lb off the colts! Strictly on the figures she has a chance but both the juveniles look up against it. Believing has been knocking on the door in G.1’s and has to be shortlisted as does Bradsell who is three from three this year including wins in the in the G.1 Nunthorpe and Flying Five but it aint fast ground here. Nohalfmeasures has form on soft and won a G.3 at Newbury last time on heavy but this is a step-up in class and a high draw doesn’t help his chances. Starlust has a couple of wins at York on good-soft suggesting he might not be as inconvenienced as others on the going and breaks from stall two which in theory is a plus. At 17-2 he can be backed as an each-way bet to nothing as such and that is what I have done (⅕th  4-places).

3.20 Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe - 1m4f (3yo+ No Geldings)

Four of the last ten Arc favourites have won the race so whoever does go off favourite, and it’s flip flopped all week, is trying to become the third successive winning favourite following victories for Alpinista (2022) and Ace Impact (2023). Vying for favouritism all week has been Sosie who of course won the G.1 1m4f Prix Neil last time, Delius second and Look De Vega third, having taken the G.1 1m4f Grand Prix de Paris before that, Illinois second and Delius third, back in July. Off the back of those two efforts the son of Sea The Stars has an obvious chance. Trained by Jean-Claude Rouget, who has landed two of the last four Arcs, Delius has been progressing all season and has to enter calculations off the back of his second in the Prix Neil as one that may still be improving in his first season of racing as he is. Shin Emperor is the hope for Japan. Can he be the one to finally beat the Arc curse for the land of the rising sun? His run in the 1m2f G.1 Irish Champion Stakes gives connections hope surely has he had a somewhat troubled passage there behind the very talented Economics and proven G.1 performer Auguste Rodin. The colt is unproven on soft ground which has to be a concern, though it’s noted his full-brother Sottsass won the 2020 Arc on heavy ground, and has only ran over the mile-and-a-half once, when third in the G.1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) earlier this year. If I am honest, if it wasn’t for the fact he is from Japan, and clearly carrying a chunk of money from there, I think he’d be a bigger price. Los Angeles is a tough, relentless galloper who appears to always give everything but I wonder if he ultimately has the class needed to win an Arc. There has been some cash for him in the build-up and speaking at a press conference organised by France Galop, Aidan O'Brien said of this week "He's a very big horse and he's improving physically. There's no doubt a mile and a half will be right up his alley. He won an Irish Derby right-handed like Longchamp and we've been very happy with his two preps for the Arc. Hopefully we've done as much as we can for him to run as well as he can." Continuous was fifth in the Arc last year as a three-year-old, only beaten three and a half lengths by Ace Impact. He won the G.1 St Leger on soft last year and with last years experience under his belt, off the back of a relatively light campaign this season, he is one that might put in a big run at big odds. Al Riffa, a son of Wootton Bassett trained by Joseph O’Brien, has been targeted at the Arc from the start of the season and he arrives having won his in the G.1 Grosser Preis von Berlin last month. Recent winners of the Hoppegarten race have included Torquator Tasso and Alpinista, both of whom won the Arc thirteen-months later, while Marienbard in 2002 and Danedream in 2011 completed the double in the same year so as ‘trials’ go it aint a bad one. Bluestocking was supplemented earlier this week . Owners Juddmonte and trainer Ralph Beckett had been leaning towards adding the four-year-old filly to the field and stumped up the €120,000 fee to do so on Wednesday as the likelihood of her preferred soft going appeared the most likely ground for the race. She has been in form this season winning the G.1 Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh and the G.1 Prix Vermeille over the Arc's course and distance last time. The other British trained runner is Sunway trained by David Menuisier. He was a winner at the highest level as a two-year-old but has arguably not reached the levels probably hoped for this year, most recently finishing third in the St Leger. He looks up against it here and he also has to contend with an outside draw in fifteen. I am on Look De Vega at 3-1 ante-post with Coral which I took back in early September before the Prix Niel. The colt has questions to answer following his first career defeat in the Prix Niel and will need to reverse the form with Sosie here. That run came after a break of three-months and was at the end of the day a ‘trial’ with the Arc always being his long-term target. He looked very good when taking the G.1 1m2f Prix du Jockey Club and hopefully his run in the Prix Niel was the effort of a horse not quite cherry ripe on the day. Reportedly Look De Vega put in a 'remarkable piece of work' over the weekend and connections appear in a bullish mood again and he has been steadily backed all week. Co-trainer Yann Lerner said this week “After the Jockey Club the horse had a break, we gave him three weeks off and then slowly started to bring him back for the second half of the season. During his break he put on quite a bit of weight and he had lost some of it by the time he went into the Prix Niel but he was still quite far away from his usual weight. Since the Prix Niel that weight has dropped and his last work showed that he is back to his weight that he was before." Of the Prix Niel loss, he added “You have to deal with it, don’t you? The important thing is that we’re heading now to the Arc and in that race the way things unfolded for him was not really ideal. To be in front was not ideal, but the jockey really respected him and in retrospect he didn’t have a hard race. In hindsight I’m quite happy with how it went, it was like a proper work gallop and he has shown us since then that he has improved quite a bit since that last run.” He breaks from stall eight of sixteen so no real complaints with that and my fingers are crossed he will put in a proper performance on the day.

4.05 Prix de l'Opera Longines - 1m2f (3yo+ Fillies & Mares)

I was fully expecting to see Opera Singer in this but she doesn’t run. Ylang Ylang has threatened to win a big race all season without doing so but is back on the soft going that saw her win the G.1 bet365 Fillies' Mile at HQ last autumn; also won a G.3 at Leopardstown on soft as a juvenile. The trip on 1m2f might just be her perfect fit; can’t quite go with the best at a mile and probably didn’t truly see out the mile-and-a-half in the Oaks. I said back in May for the 1,000 Guineas I thought middle-distances would likely be her game and from everything we’ve seen this year the mile-and-a-quarter on soft should be right up her street. I think 4's is possibly generous and I have some of that. Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Fallen Angel steps up in trip having finished second in the mile G.1 Matron Stakes at the Curragh last month; Ylang Ylang a staying on fourth three-quarters-of-a-length back. There is enough in her breeding to suggest she might see out the trip but this is her first try. G.1 Yorkshire Oaks winner Content drops back down in trip and I just worry that her usual style of running, restrained out the back, could see her in the wrong spot when the taps are turned on and ultimately she'll end up running on into a minor place; Ryan Moore prefers Ylang Ylang.

4.40 Qatar Prix de la Foret - 7f (3yo+)

With no seven-furlong Group One in Britain this is often targeted by the intermediate distance specialists and it is no surprise to see 2022 winner Kinross here yet again and that he heads the market. Ramatuelle is yet to win at the top-level but  put in two big efforts in the UK this season third in the 1,000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes, and back on home soil after a break, and I think her preferred softer going, has to be considered. Poet Master deserves the chance of a big prize but takes a step-up in class on going that is an unknown for him so has too many questions to answer for me. G.1 mile Prix du Moulin de Longchamp winner Tribalist surely won’t get away with going half the track clear as he did that day, what were the other jockeys thinking, but is arguably better than ever this season so can’t be ignored. Big Rock is clear on ratings despite not winning a race this season. An empathic winner of the G.1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes over a mile on soft at Ascot last October back on home soil and his preferred soft going can he get back to his best? He ran a big race to be third in the G.1 Woodbine Mile last month on a tight track on fast going, neither of which you’d think ideal, so perhaps he is coming back to his best. Usually up the pointed end from the start Christophe Soumillon might try and run the finish out of the opposition here and nick it from the front. I am on each-way at 12-1 (⅕th 4-places). 

Be lucky or être chanceux as they say across the Channel.