Best bets for the horse racing Saturday 5th October 2024

Somewhat unusually I am busier on Sunday than Saturday this weekend with it being the Arc meeting in France but there are still a number of bets to be had Saturday as an Amuse-bouche before the big meeting Sunday - I’ve gone all French already! I concentrate mainly at HQ on Saturday but there are a couple of bets to be had across the Channel at Longchamp on their Saturday card as well.

Best bets for the horse racing at Newmarket

They race on good-soft at Newmarket with a sunny day forecast. The mile Group One Virgin Bet Sun Chariot Stakes at 2.40 is the main event on Saturday. Dirty Dozen member See The Fire was entered for the G.1 1m2f 1m2f Prix de l'Opera Longines over at Longchamp on Sunday so the fact she runs here interests me. She got a well-deserved first victory of the season in the G.3 1m1f Strensall Stakes at York last time having just been held-off by Opera Singer in the G.1 1m2f Nassau Stakes at Goodwood before that. I assume she is here for the better ground as she didn’t appear to see out the 1m2f at Sandown in the G.1 Coral-Eclipse back in July on soft; though that was a pretty hot affair in fairness won by City Of Troy with Al Riffa second and Ghostwriter third. On ratings she has a bit to find with Inspiral and Nashwa but as I mentioned earlier this week the yard of John and Thady Gosden have been in terrible form, one winner in a Chelmsford maiden in the last fortnight to show for their efforts, so that has to be a negative for the two older fillies. She gets the slight weight-for-age allowance and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Oisin Murphy making a strong challenge from a fair way out and hopefully sweeping passed the field. I am on the Andrew Balding trained filly at 3-1. Tamfana steps back up to the top-table having won the G.3 Atalanta Stakes at Sandown last time (tipped on here) and is perhaps the biggest danger to the selection.

The mile Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back EBF Maiden Stakes at 3.50 is the next race of interest to me at HQ. Charlie Appleby had four entered here but runs just two in the shape of Strong Belief and Wild Nature. Strong Belief would usually be a bet for me as a debutant for the yard here but his stablemate’s chances are hard to ignore. Wild Nature finished second on debut back in August at Sandown over a mile despite being keen early and running green off the home term. She returned to Esher in September, again over a mile, when third looking to be going well before losing positions in the final furlong. With those experiences behind her and William Buick in the saddle here I expect it to be third time lucky for the son of Kingman. I have some of the 9-4.

At 4.25 we have the 7f Virgin Bet Best Odds Daily Maiden Stakes. Charlie Appleby had four entered here as well, including Reign Of Honour who ran at Newcastle in the week where he was a promising third, but the master of Moulton Paddocks now saddles just Secret Theory for the race; was withdrawn here last weekend due to the going. He is certainly a nicely bred colt being by Dubawi out of the Shamardal mare Mistrusting. Sire and grand-sire need little introduction and the mare is proving a very good dam indeed. All five of her previous offspring are winners including multiple Group winners Mysterious Night, Star Of Mystery and Althiqa; there is every reason to think this one should be a fair two-year-old, and ultimately turn out above average. I wanted to back him last week on debut and have done so today at the 9-4.

Best bet for the horse racing at Longchamp

It's soft going at Longchamp for Saturday and likely to stay dry during racing. Kyprios is long odds-on for the Group One 2m4f Qatar Prix du Cadran at 1.33 and basically unbackable unless you are looking for a banker for a multiple bet. Illinois is similarly priced at unbackable odds for the Group Two 1m7f Qatar Prix Chaudenay earlier on the card at 12.23 as ‘the lads’ from Ballydoyle look to pocket some decent prize-money early on Arc weekend.

There is one that might be over-priced on the card in the shape of Mountain Song in the Group Two mile Qatar Prix Daniel Wildenstein at 3.25. She gamely scored over the same course and distance in the Listed Prix de la Cochere at the start of September and has been running okay in France this season since moving from Charlie Appleby to Henri-Alex Pantall. The Sea The Stars filly went close to breaking her Group-race duck in the G.3 Prix Bertrand de Tarragon at Chantilly last time out when she flew home after meeting traffic problems to go down by just a head to the re-opposing Andromede. If Mickael Barzalona can get her in a decent spot turning for home she’ll be coming home as strongly as any of them and could just get up! She’s not one to follow blindly but I think she is worth a punt at the 8-1 in this.

A member of the Dirty Dozen last year, when he didn’t set hoof on a racecourse, Anmaat returned to action winning the 1m2 ½f G.3 Betfred Rose Of Lancaster Stakes at Haydock in August. He won the 1m1½f Group Two Qatar Prix Dollar in 2022 and is back for the race this year due off at 4.35. He is a talented horse and more than capable of winning this race again, especially with that Haydock win under his belt which would have blown away the cobwebs after so long on the side-lines. Going is perfect and he is a strong fancy at 2-1.

Be lucky