Best bets for the horse racing Saturday 28th September 2024

The weather will be considerably nicer at Newmarket for day-three of the Cambridgeshire meeting, sunshine is forecast with a gentle breeze, so though the ground remains soft this morning it is likely to be drying all day. I am showing a profit so far at the Cambridgeshire Meeting with three winners from my seven tips, my form figures reading: 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 4th, 2nd, 1st. I am once again concentrating on Newmarket for the afternoon with a bet out in the States this evening for a bit of interest later.

Best bets for the horse racing at Newmarket

The Group Two mile Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes looks a pretty competitive affair with, arguably, all seven-runners in with a chance. Wimbledon Hawkeye was beaten by current 2,000 Guineas favourite The Lion In Winter when second in York's 7f G.3 Acomb Stakes last time and on breeding it would be no surprise to see further improvement for the step-up in trip. Luther went into many peoples notebook when winning the mile Listed Ascendant Stakes at Haydock early this month and clearly has a future. Puppet Master takes a big step-up in class for the Maiden at Galway he won in August over their extended mile on soft. The son of Camelot is out of Group winning mare Realtra and being proven over the trip on the going it would be foolish to ignore him. Aidan O’Brien and ‘the lads’ have a strong raiding party for the afternoon but wouldn’t have sent him over just for a day out. The colt he was second to at Killarney on debut has taken a Listed race since and he did catch the eye when winning at Galway. It’s not often you get to back a Ballydoyle one at 4-1 in a Group race and that is what I have done. I noted Ryan Moore in his Betfair column saying “This is my first time aboard Puppet Master, but he looks to have an obvious chance off the back of his two runs to date. He made his debut over a mile at Killarney when green throughout but ran on well in the final stages when the penny started to drop. The colt improved for that debut when last seen at Galway, handling the soft ground to runaway an easy winner by four lengths.”

The Group One 6f Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes at 2.25 sees Babouche and Lake Victoria put their unbeaten records on the line both arriving as they do with a hat-trick of victories each. Babouche followed up her Cork Maiden success on debut with wins at the Curragh in the G.3 Anglesey Stakes and G.1 Phoenix Stakes. She got the better of Middle Park Stakes favourite Whistlejacket in the Phoenix and with that colt has since franked the form since taking the G.1 Prix Morny at Deauville it’s easy to see why she is favourite. Lake Victoria won what is working out a fair Maiden at the Curragh over seven on debut before taking the G.3 7f Sweet Solera Stakes at HQ in August. She showed a proper turn of foot when landing the G.1 Moyglare Stakes over 7f last time at the Curragh and clearly has some talent. By Frankel out of the top-class sprinter Quiet Reflection, who was at her best on soft, there is plenty of speed in her pedigree and you’d think she’d have no worries stepping-down in trip as she does here. I am expecting a front-running ride from Ryan Moore and fingers crossed she’ll led every yard. I am on at 5-2. Moore told his Betfair column “I am looking forward to getting back on Lake Victoria who I rode on debut at the Curragh over 7f when beating a nice type in Red Letter who has since franked the form. She stepped up into Group 3 company next time out in the Sweet Solera at Newmarket's July course and handled the track well to see off Mountain Breeze. Last time out she kept her unbeaten run going when taking the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes on Irish Champions Weekend and that was a good race. She drops down to 6f here which shouldn't be a problem, and I am not fearing the slow ground will affect her either. Babouche is obviously our main danger also being an unbeaten Group 1 winner and it is set up to be a good match up.”

The colts are on show at 3.00 for the Group One 6f Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes. Aidan O'Brien looks to hold a strong hand as he bids for a record eighth win in the race with Whistlejacket and Ides Of March in the line-up. The three victories Whistlejacket has to his name thus far, including the 6f G.1 Prix Morny at Deauville last time, have been achieved with soft in the going description so all the rain that has been about should suit him just fine. All that said he has been beaten at prices of Evens and short on three occasions and I can’t be backing him at the prices; he should win but he should have won the Phoenix Stakes and Norfolk Stakes in theory! I tipped Ides Of March when he got off the mark at the third attempt in a 6f Maiden at the Curragh in August and he came out at the end of that month and took the G.3 Round Tower Stakes over the same track and trip easily. The slower ground today is an unknown but he certainly appears to be improving. Shadow Of Light, trained by Charlie Appleby, bids to emulate his three-parts brother Earthlight by taking this. The chestnut son of Lope De Vega easily won on debut at Yarmouth over 6f in July before comfortably scoring under a penalty at Newmarket last month. He was a staying-on second in the G.2 6f Gimcrack Stakes at York’s Ebor Festival in late August before missing an intended engagement in the G.2 Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury due to heavy ground. His trainer Charlie Appleby said this week “Shadow Of Light was an intended runner at Newbury last week but we gave that a swerve after the ground turned heavy. Conditions could be on the slower side again here, although a bit of ease wouldn’t be a concern. He has come forward since York and should be a contender at this level.” Defence Minister caught the eye winning comfortably at Haydock to make his form figures two wins from two starts, and he is the one that could run a big race at a fair price. I have gone with Shadow Of Light at the 5-1 in the end to turnover the odds-on jolly; hopefully the going will have the word good in the description by 3.00.

The 7f Blandford Bloodstock Maiden Fillies' Stakes at 4.15 is the sort of race many will ignore but I am on one. Season Of Light was entered up at Haydock on Friday but will line-up here to make debut. Out of Listed winner Lucie Manette, a daughter of French Guineas & French Derby winner Shamardal, there is plenty to like on paper and I would normally back a Moulton Park debutant at HQ but her stablemate with experience looks the way to go. Wild Angel was third over 7f at Kempton Park on debut earlier this month, doing well to finish where she did all things considered being drawn wide and looking pretty green; James Doyle reported afterwards that the filly hung right-handed in the home straight. This looks a good opportunity for her to shed her maiden tag at the second time of asking. She is the pick of William Buick and hopefully she’ll like the straight seven-furlongs here. I am on at 11-4.

Best bet for the horse racing from Belmont At The Big A

Across the pond in America one of the Dirty Dozen twelve horses to follow for 2024 is in action in the shape of Silver Knott in the 1m4f Grade One Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes at 7.40. He has already won me more than a couple of quid this season having won the G.2 1m4f VisitLEX Elkhorn Stakes at Keeneland, 1m3f G.2 Man O War Stakes here and then the G.2 1m3f Bowling Green Stakes at Saratoga. Last time out he was third in the 1m4f G.1 Resorts World Casino Sword Dancer Stakes at Saratoga behind the re-opposing Far Bridge and stablemate Measured Time. Far Bridge made every yard at Saratoga in the Sword Dancer Stakes to put in a career best performance. They race off level weights here, Far Bridge was in receipt of 4lb from Silver Knott last time, and they are both drawn wide, Silver Knott six and Far Bridge seven. I would expect to see Dylan Davis do all he can to stop Far Bridge getting to the lead and across here early and if Silver Knott can get to the turn in a better slot, with the 4lb weight reversal from the Saratoga run, I think he can gain revenge and secure a first G.1 victory. I am on at ?-1. Charlie Appleby said this week “Silver Knott has freshened up well since the Sword Dancer and heads to Aqueduct in good order. He’s been very solid all season over these sort of distances and you would hope that he can be a player again.” I will be on but haven't bet just yet as not everyone has chalked-up, 2-1 is available in places. Last year's winner War Like Goddess holds a solid chance again. 

Be lucky