Best bets for the horse racing Saturday 12th October 2024

It is Day two of the Dubai Future Champions Festival at Newmarket with four Group races and a Listed heat on the card. Two of the three horses tipped went in on Friday so a nice start to the meeting; hopefully I have a few more winners up my sleeve for Saturday. The going is officially good to soft (good in places), with a half chance of rain on the day.

Best bets for the horse racing at Newmarket Dubai Future Champions Festival

The first at HQ is the 1m1f Group Three Space Blues Darley Stakes at 1.15. I have talked of and tipped Lead Artist before. The John and Thady Gosden trained colt has won twice in five starts placing-up on the other three occasions. His victories include a mile York Novice Stakes and the G.3 mile Thoroughbred Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. Beaten by seven-furlong specialist Kinross in the 7f G.2 Park Stakes at Doncaster last time I think the step back up in trip will suit. Any rain would likely see him pulled-out, he has been a non-runner twice this year when the going got soft. I am taking a chance at 9-4 the ground will be okay but wouldn’t be shocked if he is pulled out if the clouds open. I tipped Ancient Rome for the G.3 Mint Millions Stakes at Kentucky last time where he never really got involved. That's a couple of poor efforts he has put in this season and his current rating of 122 flatters him I would suggest. The five-year-old has undergone wind surgery, and could bounce back for that, but can’t be backed on the form he has shown this season. Liberty Lane won last month's Cambridgeshire over C&D and deserves another chance at this level, well beaten in the G.3 Dante Stakes as a three-year-old in his only Pattern class run. If the rain does arrive that will surely help his chances.

The mile Group Three Emirates Autumn Stakes at 2.25 has just six runners and is perhaps not the best renewal of the race though there are two in here that should prove useful. The Aidan O’Brien trained Delacroix was second in a G.2 contest at Leopardstown last month and that is, on paper, the best piece of form in the book. That said it was a four-runner event and he was beaten as an odds-on jolly which concerns me. Silver Peak was only fourth in a Novice Stakes over 7f at Kempton on debut but then came out again and showed plenty of improvement for that experience to take a mile Novice Stakes at Haydock last month on good-soft. The second has come out and won earlier this week so the form looks as good as it can. It means I am tipping another Charlie Applby trained one but I am quite warm on the son of Dubawi. Dam, Pretty Spirit hails from the family that have produced the likes of Persian King, Planteur and Policy Maker down the years so there is an above average chance this one should prove pretty decent. I have some of the 5-2. Charlie Appleby told the Godolphin website “Silver Peak progressed from his first to second start, and the form of his Haydock win has been backed up with the runner-up going on to win well at Pontefract. We are trying to find his level heading into the winter, but we have been very pleased with him so far.”

Aidan O'Brien bids to win the 7f Group One Darley Dewhurst Stakes at 3.00 for a record ninth time having taken the race in the past with City Of Troy last year and the likes of Rock Of Gibraltar (2001), Churchill (2016) and St Mark's Basilica (2020) previously. He was mob-handed in the entries but with The Lion In Winter now a non-runner due to a bruised foot has just the two in and they look up against it. Charlie Appleby has two in the race and I would imagine William Buick had to think long and hard about which run to ride. Ancient Truth is unbeaten in three and took the 7f G.2 Superlative Stakes on the July course when last seen in the summer. The slightly softer underhoof conditions here have to be a slight concern, his previous three starts being on good-firm and good. Shadow Of Light has one blot on his copy book when second in the G.2 6f Gimcrack Stakes at York back in August; had won a maiden at Yarmouth and Conditions Stakes at Newmarket prior to that. He got back to winning ways last month taking the 6f G.1 Middle Park Stakes at HQ on soft comfortably by four-lengths with the odds-on Whistlejacket in second. It’s a step-up in trip but he wasn’t stopping in the Middle Park Stakes and track experience is no bad thing here with the undulation. He looks like a ‘banker’ now with The Lion In Winter out and I am on at 8-11. Charlie Appleby said of the pair this week “Shadow Of Light has come out of the Middle Park Stakes in great order. We know the Middle Park-Dewhurst double has only been achieved a few times before, but we are confident that he will see out the seven furlongs. He ticks a lot of boxes, which is why William [Buick] chose to ride him. We purposely missed the National Stakes with Ancient Truth to instead head here in the best condition. He looks fantastic – he’s strengthened with the break and has done everything right in the lead-up.”

It’s no surprise to see a number of Jumps yards well represented in the 2m2f Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap at 3.40. Sea Of Sands trained by Willie Mullins has been heading the market all week despite the fact he has been on a racetrack just once since August 2022 when taking a Listowel Maiden Hurdle last month on his stable debut. He did win the 1m2f G.3 WETTSTAR.de - Derby-Trial at Hoppegarten back in May 2021 during his career on the Flat in Germany but was well-beaten in the G.1 IDEE 152nd Deutsches Derby that year. He was on a downward curve thereafter running in four more Group races but never troubling the judge with his last run on the Flat being in a pretty run of the mill affair over 1m1½f on the Polytrack at Deauville in August 2022 where he finished gift of ten. He has been given an OR of 97 for this and who knows if that's harsh or lenient; you’d could argue on his form that saw him run in the Deutsches Derby it’s lenient, but on his run at Deauville it looks very high! I can’t be backing in the race.

Best bet for the horse racing at Keeneland

Soprano interests me making her debut across the pond in the Grade One 1m1f Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes presented by Dixiana. Third in the mile G.1 Coolmore America 'Justify' Matron Stakes last time behind Porta Fortuna and Fallen Angel the George Boughey trained filly, owned by Highclere Thoroughbred Racing, could pick-up a nice prize here. She has form on firm going and has been ridden much more prominently on her last two starts which wouldn’t hurt out here. Connections have always thought a lot of her and this could prove an inspired bit of race placement. Billy ‘the kid’ Loughnane is out in Kentucky to ride and I think she is worth an investment at 5-2. She Feels Pretty is the obvious danger.

Be lucky