Best bets for the horse racing Friday 27th September 2024

It is day two of the Cambridgeshire meeting at Newmarket and that is where I am once again concentrating for the day. Having had rain Wednesday night and on and off Thursday with more possibly today it is going to be pretty tough going at HQ, literally with the official description being heavy this morning. Expect non-runners.

It was a bit of a frustrating day yesterday, I showed a tiny profit, but it could have been so much better with Olympus Point getting the job done at 9-4 but Present Times and Diego Ventura annoyingly close both finishing second. It’s another busy day on the Rowley Mile and my fancies for Friday follow.

Best bets for the horse racing at Newmarket

They get underway slightly later on Friday with the first, the Listed mile Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai British EBF Rosemary Stakes at 1.50, I am not betting in the race. Juddmonte homebred Time Lock is a filly I have tipped before and she is out in the Group Three 1m4f Princess Royal Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Stakes for fillies and mares at 2.25. Last seen finishing third in the G.2 Princess Of Wales's Stakes back in July she is proven at this level and back against just her own sex will surely be in the mix. She has a smattering of form on softer going, won a Listed heat in France last year on good-soft plus third in the G.2 Lillie Langtry Stakes on heavy, and should be able to give away the weight she has to to the three-year-olds here, none of them having really done anything that special yet. She wears a tongue-tie for the first time here. The going is my biggest concern in fact but I have taken a chance she’ll handle it better than the rest at 9-4.

I think the Group Two 7f Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Rockfel Stakes for two-year-old fillies at 3.00 looks at first glance to be all about Formal. The daughter of is two from two having won at Newbury back in July and Leicester earlier this month and deserves to be jolly but is short enough. It is hard to know what she has beaten thus far albeit she has done it fairly easily on both starts. The form figures of Ecstatic certainly do not read as well, 3,1,5, but she won a Tipperary maiden comfortably in August before finishing fifth, behind the impressive Desert Flower, in the mile G.2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster recently. She stumbled at the start there and was never really able to get involved following that but that looked a much warmer G.2 than this. The ground conditions are a bit of an unknown, and as she is by top Japanese sprinter Lord Kanaloa looks to have gone against her. Bubbling appears to be the yard number two on jockey bookings but stepping up to a mile on might suit. She won over 7f at Galway on yielding before finishing third in the 7f Listed Ingabelle Stakes at Leopardstwon last time. Bumped at the start she was doing her best work late on there looking as if a step-up in trip would suit and there is hope she’ll go on the ground in her pedigree. I have plumped for Formal as she was visually impressive at Leicester in pretty horrid conditions and have the Evens.

The colts and geldings are out for the mile Group Two Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Joel Stakes at 3.35 and we could have a cracking race on our hands despite just the six lining-up. On OR’s just 3lb separates the field with the older generation giving the weight-for-age to the three-year-olds. It's no surprise Leas Artist doesn't run but t he fact Dancing Gemini is a non-runner tells you how bad the ground is as his second in the Poule d'Essai des Poulains on very soft looks the best form on offer in the conditions. Poker Face won’t mind the rain having been about and the consistent five-year-old has to enter calculations as does Ice Max who beat him last time on soft at Goodwood in the aforementioned G.2 Celebration Mile Stakes. With Poker Face getting a 5lb pull at the weights from Goodwood with Ice Max, beaten a lentgh, and with James Doyle in the saddle today he is the selection at 3-1. 

Charlie Appleby has done it again and has two making debut in the 7f Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai British EBF "Confined" Maiden Stakes at 4.10; as mentioned on Thursday it does muddy the waters as far as my usual system of backing a Moulton Paddocks debutant at HQ is concerned! William Buick was down the ride Secret Theory early on the Godolphin website and he is certainly nicely bred being by Dubawi out of the Shamardal mare Mistrusting. Sire and grand-sire need little introduction and the mare is proving a very good dam indeed. All five of her previous offspring are winners including multiple Group winners Mysterious Night, Star Of Mystery and Althiqa. You can see why Buick would have chosen him over Music Of Time at least on paper. There is every reason to think this one should be a fair two-year-old, and ultimately turn out above average. Seaplane has two little ducks next to his name, both runs on softer ground, and further progress likely and experience on similar ground conditions he looks the obvious danger if the Godolphin owned colt doesn’t go on the ground. I haven’t placed a bet as yet as I wouldn’t be surprised if Secret Theory is pulled out with the going surely a concern; none of his half-siblings have won on the softer going. This race will be a last minute decision for me.  Update: with the Godolphin colt out I have backed Seaplane at 6-4

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